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Soybeans Market Commentary

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Soybean futures are currently 4 cents lower after posting losses of 10 to 11 cents in most contracts on Wednesday. Nearby soy meal was down $1.50/ton and soy oil 32 points lower. NASS showed most of the harvest progress was made in the ECB last week, as IA, MN, and the Dakotas are now lagging their average pace. Quality problems in the WCB are real, but mostly a basis issue. Lower test weights would reduce official yields, which are converted to 56# bushels. State by state condition ratings show IA dropping 11 points and NE down 5, with IL up 8 and MN 1 point higher. Analysts expect 18/19 world soybean stocks to be reported at 109.9 MMT by the USDA on Thursday, 1.64 MMT larger than the September total. An auction of Chinese state reserves saw 101,057 MT of soybeans sold on Wednesday, accounting for 100% of what was offered. On average, the trade is looking for a 0.5 bpa increase in the national average yield from USDA today.

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